NIGERIA'S ECONOMIC CROSSROADS: WHY THE GIANT OF AFRICA MUST WAKE UP
By Amana Alkali •
Nigeria must consider practical economic turnaround for its GDP and take action on policies or ideas to reclaim its position as Africa's true giant.
Nigeria
Africa
Afdb
Gdp
President
Akinwunmi adesina
African development bank
The President of the African Development Bank Group, Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, stirred a national debate when he declared that Nigeria’s GDP per capita had dropped to $824, allegedly worse than it was in 1960. While the Nigerian government quickly rebuffed the claim, citing a current GDP per capita of $1,596.6 based on 2023 World Bank data and correcting the 1960 figure to $93, the larger issue remains: Nigeria has woefully underperformed economically over the last six decades.
Whether the figure is $824 or $1,596, the takeaway is clear—there has been growth, yes, but little meaningful transformation. Nigeria’s economic journey, though dotted with milestones of potential, has largely failed to deliver the type of prosperity expected from a nation with its sheer size, resource base, and human capital.
From Promise to Paradox
At independence in 1960, Nigeria and countries like South Korea and Botswana had comparable GDP per capita levels. Today, those nations have left Nigeria behind by margins that should cause serious introspection. In 1960, Nigeria had a GDP per capita of $93.1, South Korea had $158.3, and Botswana stood at $58.9. Fast forward to 2023, and the picture is sobering. South Korea boasts a GDP per capita of over $33,000, which reflects a 209-fold increase. Botswana now has $7,820, which reflects a 133 times increase. And, Nigeria? Only $1,596.6, just a 17-fold rise.
It gets even more alarming when population growth is factored in. Nigeria’s population exploded from about 45 million in 1960 to over 228 million in 2023, a fivefold jump. Yet, GDP per capita only increased 17 times. In contrast, South Korea’s population barely doubled over the same period, but its income per capita surged exponentially. What this means is that while Nigeria got bigger in numbers, it did not get richer in real terms.
This is growth without transformation. Size without strength. Potential without performance.
The Cost of Missing the Development Bus
Why did this happen? Has a country once hailed as the “Giant of Africa” become a textbook case of wasted potential?
- Overdependence on Oil: Nigeria's mono-product economy continues to rely heavily on crude oil exports, which account for over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. Yet oil, a volatile commodity, has proved unreliable as a sole engine of development.
- Weak Industrial Base: Unlike peers who built strong manufacturing and export economies, Nigeria failed to industrialize. Local industries remain stunted due to poor infrastructure, high energy costs, and unfriendly business environments.
- Human Capital Deficit: Education and healthcare—pillars of long-term economic growth—have suffered chronic neglect. Nigeria spends less than 6% of its annual budget on education and healthcare, far below recommended benchmarks.
- Governance and Corruption: Endemic corruption, weak institutions, and policy inconsistencies have undermined the credibility of reforms and scared off serious investors.
The African Context: Falling Behind at Home
Nigeria's relative decline is not just global; it's also regional. Take Rwanda, a country that suffered genocide in 1994. Today, Rwanda’s GDP per capita is $978, which can be tagged as low, but growing steadily and matched with improved infrastructure, stability, and innovation in governance. Kenya, long seen as an East African economic hub, has surged ahead with a GDP per capita of $2,027, bolstered by digital innovations like mobile money and a diversified economy. Ghana, with far fewer resources than Nigeria, has managed better inflation control, democratic stability, and consistent economic reforms, leading to a current GDP per capita of $2,445.
These countries may not be wealthy yet, but their trajectories are upward. Nigeria, by contrast, remains stuck in an oil-export trap, spending cycles, and political showmanship with little substance.
A Wake-Up Call for the Giant
The question Nigerians must now answer is: how long will this paradox persist? How long will Nigeria continue to trade on old glories while falling behind economically?
Nigeria’s scale is unmatched on the continent. With the largest population in Africa, abundant natural resources, and a diaspora remitting billions yearly, the country has the raw ingredients for greatness. But greatness is not bestowed by population figures or export quotas. Greatness is earned through visionary governance, strategic investments, and deliberate nation-building.
As Africa enters a new phase of global relevance, where its youth population is set to be the world’s largest and its resources increasingly central to clean energy and digital economies, Nigeria cannot afford to be a bystander. It must lead Africa’s economic revolution. It must shift from being the continent’s sleeping giant to its conscious architect.
What Must Be Done: A Blueprint for Change
- Shift from Extractive to Value-Adding Production: Nigeria must stop exporting raw materials and start refining, processing, and manufacturing locally. From crude oil to agricultural produce, value must be added at home.
- Invest in Human Capital for the Future: Education reform is urgent. Nigeria must prepare its youth for the Fourth Industrial Revolution—skills in AI, blockchain, green energy, and innovation must be taught from the grassroots.
- Build Infrastructure of Competitiveness: Electricity, roads, rail, and internet access are not luxuries—they are lifelines of productivity. These sectors need massive investment, both public and private.
- Reform Governance: Nigeria’s politics must evolve from performative drama to institutional accountability. Transparency, decentralization, and citizen engagement must become the new normal.
- Unleash the Diaspora and Private Sector: Nigeria’s diaspora is among the most educated and entrepreneurial globally. They should be incentivized to invest, mentor, and contribute to national development. The private sector should be unleashed, not burdened, through tax reforms, infrastructure, and access to credit.
The Choice Before Africa's Giant
Dr. Adesina may have erred on the numbers, but his warning is sound: Nigeria cannot postpone the productivity revolution any longer. The future will not be kind to countries that confuse speeches for strategies and press conferences for policies.
Nigeria stands at a strategic inflection point. It can either transform itself into the economic engine of Africa or continue sinking under the weight of its contradictions. Other nations, once behind Nigeria, have chosen growth and moved ahead. It must now choose transformation or risk permanent economic irrelevance.
The numbers have spoken. The world is watching. And the responsibility, finally, is Nigeria's.
